Up for disappointment

I set my alarm to wake me up at 4:00 AM.  I even slept on the sofa in front of the TV.  When I woke I headed to the basement to throw a few logs into the furnace.  After a cool drink of water I was ready, ready to watch the Endeavor embark on it's second to last mission and the final night launch of the shuttle space transportation system.  There will never be another sight like a night shuttle launch with those beastly solid rocket boosters lighting up the sky. 

NASA TV is probably the worst run network channel in the history of channels of any type.  This includes the English channel and the Strait of Malacca.  The fires light, however, nobody has better programing.  The fires did not light.  They did not even try to strike a match.  Apparently the clouds were too thick.  I don't know why I even bother anymore.  It does not matter how rosy the forecast is.  If I watch they will scrub for weather.  At least with a launch to the space station they tell you right away.  I got to go right back to bed, albeit disappointed.  I did not have to run and look up triboelectrification even once.

Why we need a successful Falcon 9 Launch soon

The real excitement in the face of Obama's budget changes at NASA is the opportunity for privet companies to fill the void with launch services and destinations.  The premier destination at the moment is obviously the International Space Station or ISS, but with two successful pathfinder projects on orbit, there is little reason to doubt that Bigelow aerospace will be able to build it's own working space station for hire.

What is not as clear is whether there will transportation available to get to either location.  The big source of excitement under NASA's new direction is the possibility that America may get a transportation solution soon in the form of a COTS D option in SpaceX's contract.  Many pardons to the other companies looking at various solutions to deliver crew to orbit, but Space Exploration technologies is the only serious player at this point.  No one else has demonstrated a wish to do more than get funding for studies at this point.  Not that I doubt Boeing's or Orbital's ability only that they have not demostrated a willingness to forge ahead with or without a solid contract from NASA.  SpaceX on the other hand built from day one with goal of transporting astronauts.  They are quite simply our current best hope, not just because they already have hardware, but because as a company they are committed.  

Now here is the rub.  While it is fun to hear Elon Musk make bold claims as to what his company is capable, they have zero launch history on their proposed rocket.  I have every reason to believe that they will succeed but it is hard to get a nation and funding behind you when you only have calculations and ground tests to point to.  I am an engineer and mathematician.  I believe the calculations and SpaceX has no bigger fan, but it is time to do away with that nagging feeling of "what if it does not work."  As NASA plans out it's (and our) future it would help if they had something from the commercial sector to hang their hat on. 

A successful Falcon 9 launch would shush the naysayers (although I am sure some will still play the safety card early and often) and instill a sense of excitement in the public, those that pay attention at any rate.  I am sure that the COTS D option or some equivalent will follow a successful launch within a few months.  Unless of course they send up an other round of bidding, which in my view would be a waste of time.

I am sure SpaceX realizes what is riding on their maiden launch and are doing their very best to balance timeliness with being fully prepared.  Failure would be an anchor we don't need.  But failure would allow for a confident turn around to the next launch.  Here's to a quick and successful launch.  All the best to SpaceX and Falcon 9