Why we need a successful Falcon 9 Launch soon

The real excitement in the face of Obama's budget changes at NASA is the opportunity for privet companies to fill the void with launch services and destinations.  The premier destination at the moment is obviously the International Space Station or ISS, but with two successful pathfinder projects on orbit, there is little reason to doubt that Bigelow aerospace will be able to build it's own working space station for hire.

What is not as clear is whether there will transportation available to get to either location.  The big source of excitement under NASA's new direction is the possibility that America may get a transportation solution soon in the form of a COTS D option in SpaceX's contract.  Many pardons to the other companies looking at various solutions to deliver crew to orbit, but Space Exploration technologies is the only serious player at this point.  No one else has demonstrated a wish to do more than get funding for studies at this point.  Not that I doubt Boeing's or Orbital's ability only that they have not demostrated a willingness to forge ahead with or without a solid contract from NASA.  SpaceX on the other hand built from day one with goal of transporting astronauts.  They are quite simply our current best hope, not just because they already have hardware, but because as a company they are committed.  

Now here is the rub.  While it is fun to hear Elon Musk make bold claims as to what his company is capable, they have zero launch history on their proposed rocket.  I have every reason to believe that they will succeed but it is hard to get a nation and funding behind you when you only have calculations and ground tests to point to.  I am an engineer and mathematician.  I believe the calculations and SpaceX has no bigger fan, but it is time to do away with that nagging feeling of "what if it does not work."  As NASA plans out it's (and our) future it would help if they had something from the commercial sector to hang their hat on. 

A successful Falcon 9 launch would shush the naysayers (although I am sure some will still play the safety card early and often) and instill a sense of excitement in the public, those that pay attention at any rate.  I am sure that the COTS D option or some equivalent will follow a successful launch within a few months.  Unless of course they send up an other round of bidding, which in my view would be a waste of time.

I am sure SpaceX realizes what is riding on their maiden launch and are doing their very best to balance timeliness with being fully prepared.  Failure would be an anchor we don't need.  But failure would allow for a confident turn around to the next launch.  Here's to a quick and successful launch.  All the best to SpaceX and Falcon 9